IT’S HAPPENING PRESENTLY
Posted by anthonynorth on January 20, 2008
We use words such as premonition and precognition with certain belief systems attached. These belief systems come in two forms. First, that they imply foreseeing the future; and second, that they are a specific type of phenomena.
I dislike these approaches. Rather, I feel that often an answer can be found in the present; and they do, infact, cover a multidude of possible causes. In this essay I will explore just one of many possible explanations, found in the present.
ABERFAN
On 21 October 1966 a slag heap slithered down a hillside and buried a school at Aberfan, South Wales. Over a hundred children and adults were killed. However, following the tragedy, John Barker recorded over seventy premonitions in the two weeks prior to the event, leading him to set up the British Premonitions Bureau.
One girl who lived in Aberfan dreamt of ‘something black’ falling on the school. Another dreamt that on arriving at the school all she found was a big black hole. Further afield from the village a woman from Sidcup in Kent dreamt of coal rushing down a hillside onto a mining village. Whilst two days before the disaster a woman from Aylesbury had a dream in which she was smothered in blackness.
STATISTICAL PROBABILITY
When looking at such premonitions, 1 feel we make a mistake by considering the events in terms of individuality. If we look, instead, at a species level, statistics make it very clear that premonitions are bound to happen.
For instance, often there is a subtle subject abroad in the media. This may not be fully appreciated by a person if they are not interested in the subject, but it will still filter into the mind at some level.
Hence, a person is more predisposed to experience a nightmare taking this factor into account. Agreed, this is not a full survey of this area of premonition – it is a subject I will return to in a later essay. However, there are other factors we can bring into the debate …
This essay has now moved to Anthony North’s new website. Read more of it here, including his own theories and more data.
(c) Anthony North, January 2008
BEYOND THE BLOG 
thedesktop said
So what? Everybody has premonitions. Last night, I dreamt that there wasn’t going to be any more cereal for breakfast, and guess what? There was no more cereal. When Hitler was fighting in World War I, he decided to abandon his post in the trench and move 200 meters down from where he was. Later, a bomb hit where he was supposed to be stationed, vaporizing everyone there.
Maybe premontionizing is some kind of sixth sense that we all possess, and some people are more adept in it than others. For me, premonitionizing would be my tenth sense.
anthonynorth said
Hi Thedesktop,
I just knew you were going to say that 🙂
Twilight(Ann) said
I follow the argument and mostly agree, AN, except (re Aberfan) for the women who were not resident in the immediate area, who probably had no knowledge of Aberfan’s terrain or dangers. If evidence exists that the non-local women had ever visited Aberfan, then the pieces fit better.
The timing of the dreams is odd though, I suspect there’s a little more to the premonitions of the Aberfan incident.
A tiny creak from a bunk bed, a smell of gass, unconsciously registered, is a logical explanation for those other instances though.
anthonynorth said
Hi Twilight,
I agree I skated over Aberfan. I think it is relevant to what I’m saying, but there IS far more to it – which I will be coming to in later posts.
As I say above, there is far more to premonition than meets the eye, encompassing many areas of ‘paranormality’. But the fact is, if I mentioned Aberfan without mentioning the cases outside the village, I’d have been pulled up on that.
As some hint as to where I’ll be going in one future post, you may get an indication to my thinking from this post,including comment 6:
e1even1 said
Stephen Mace covers this in his book “Sorcery as Virtual Mechanics”. basically a quantum physics phenomenon exists that is analogous. quoting … “On the cover you will have seen a ‘Feynman diagram,’ a type of schematic invented by the physicist Richard Feynman to help account for the interactions of subatomic particles. The diagram I show on the cover represents one of the simplest possible interactions, the mutual repulsion of two electrons ( e- ), with a “virtual” photon ( y ) acting to transfer the momentum between them. This essay suggests that an analogous sort of transfer operates on the level of human event, one which provides a mechanism for omens and the results of successful conjurations.” so the virtual (created from nothing) photon is only “created” because it’s needed and returns to nonexistance after it’s function is served.
anthonynorth said
Hi E1even1,
Welcome. I often relate phenomena philosophically to quantum theory, but I must admit I’d never done so regarding this effect. An interesting parallel.
Many thanks.
Brian said
From a quantum level, since any possible future can exist, any series of events that later terminates in a disaster, will have people who claim to have been spared. Things like plane crashes, when someone is late and misses the connection by a series of strange events.
All of us are more attuned to the world around us than we are aware, “gut instinct”, and those that are hyper-aware can seem to be able to see the future.
W. Scott said
There’s nothing wrong with that hypothesis, except selective sampling and presumption–neither of which provide illumination on the scores of cases which simpy can’t fit the “unconscious knowledge” explanation.
There are numerous things which are beyond our present technological capacity to understand and quantify. It would be a disservice to science to settle on simple–and unproveable–explanations. since the above hypothesis does not adequately explain the phenomenon, science dictates that it must be reformulated.
anthonynorth said
Hi Brian,
I’m going to delve into ‘physics’ next week on premonition, in particular what other dimensions could tell us about the ability. I’m always amazed, though, how quantum theory can apply so perfectly to the paranormal – the observer effect, spontaneous action at a distance, the holographic universe, and, as you say, the probabalistic nature of the subject.
Hi W. Scott
As I say in the post, there are many explanations, which I’ll cover in time. Hence, your criticism – although valid – is maybe a touch presumptious.
Premonition, precognition, etc, can, I think be split into various phenomena. I touched only on one here, which, by itself, cannot explain the whole subject.
But regarding that particular type of premonition, I think it fits nicely.
Brian said
The other side to this subject is the fact that observation creates reality. In the case of having a premonition, is the viewer seeing a quantum future? Or is the viewer creating a quantum future through their actions?
Techne said
Anthony,
I have no problem with the idea that we are all subconsciously picking up on all manner of information.
What is more of a knotty problem for me is the idea of the subconscious making ‘decisions’ about this information, and doing it in a far more comprehensive and efficient manner than the conscious ego can, and then delivering it at the exact opportune moment to the ego or even unconsciously controlling conscious action without conscious agreement.
This is almost like being ‘possessed’ by one’s self.
It also implies that the efficiency of this function is directly related to the amount of knowledge one has acquired for comparative purposes, which would also imply that the longer one lives, the greater efficiency.
Additionally we have the problem of “Subconscious Gone Wild” which is to say that we cannot assume that such a mechanism works perfectly and in our best interests. If it is strictly a mechanical response based on prior programming, and if it is (apparently) making the lion’s share of our decisions without our conscious approval, then at least we have a partial explanation for why George Bush was elected to two terms in office.
Seriously, unless there is a prior, inborn programming for correct, mutually healthy decisions (and God knows where THAT came from), we stand the danger of being a civilization that can slide into being nothing more than a living version of a horrific video game.
I do not discount the effect of the subconscious, but I do feel that it is ill-defined as to what it is, how it really works, and what the design of it is truly intended for.
The frightening thing is that the subconcious ‘may’ be what people refer to as their ‘higher self’ when it is functioning correctly. If this is true, and the subconscious is strictly a mechanical, programmed biological function, then the ‘higher self’ of some may be not only malfunctioning but downright evil.
Techne
anthonynorth said
Hi Brian,
Valid point. I’ll be approaching something akin to probability of a future through actions in a later post. In effect, I’ll be comparing premonitions to the curse, or ‘evil eye’, and what relevance it could have on our psychology, thus changing the way we approach something.
Hi Techne,
You raise some interesting speculations here. I don’t think the amount of time we’ve lived would have too much of an effect. Rather, can we learn to use such unconscious information better through practice? Is that what is meant by ‘psychic’?
Studies suggest that the efficiency of such abilities increase the closer we get to an altered state – sleep, trance, etc – suggesting that the conscious mind, when fully operable, is basically in charge. Does this negate the moral problems you speak of?
It is the same with efficiency. The cases I use came from the dream state, where outside stimuli has been shown to affect the nature of the dream. I don’t think my supposition is too far away from this.
As for what the unconscious is here for, I tackled this one in an earlier post, which you may find interesting:
Mindst you, why Bush was twice elected? I think I’ll have to leave that mystery to a greater mind than mine 🙂
TiamatsVision said
I find the quantum theory an interesting possibility.
I had a dream in which I dreamed of someone I had never met, and didn’t know existed. I was dreaming of a friend, and someone was with my friend. When I called my friend to discuss it, and described the person I saw with them (and their personality from the dream), they confirmed that indeed this was someone they were having an issue with.
Never having heard of this person or known of their existence before hand, and not knowing the troubles of my friend in dealing with them (they live out of state and we don’t talk too often); there is no way this person was “planted” in my subconscious. And that’s what makes it fascinating 😉
anthonynorth said
Hi TiamatsVision,
This experience may tie in with another idea I’ll be looking at some time. Consider a case had by Tom Lethbridge, a famous British researcher a few decades back. He dreamt he saw an unknown man behind a window, and he was seeming to turn something in his hands. The next morning, he went out driving, and passed the man – his dream had interpreted it slightly wrong; the man was turning his steering wheel, seen through the windscreen of his car.
This seems totally nonsensical – why on earth dream such a thing? But consider the possibility of a real ‘collective unconscious’. Could dreams ‘merge’ in such a concept, with elements of other’s thoughts invading your dream?
If so, could Lethbridge have unconsciously worked out that if he did ‘this’ tomorrow, he would see this man, because the man was thinking of doing something that meant their lives would cross?
If so, then we have a probability of the future ‘vision’ coming true. But it is just as likely that either could change their mind. Thus, in quantum terms, it remains probabalistic until a definite observation.
A similar process could have ‘planted’ that person in your unconscious.
Adam S said
I really think humans have an insight into the future. I think some are more attuned to this than others, but I have even had experiences myself that I cannot explain. Some friends of mine (father and daughter) have had dreams about people being pregnant etc that have come to fruition in the very immediate future.
I read recently about Professor Dick Bierman’s studies and the views of Dr Kary Mullis & Brian Josephson (both Nobel Prize winners) and was intrigued. I looked to find more literature on these kind of experiments but there seem to be very few. While some results do look impressive and seem to go well beyond chance, most of the argument for precognition is anecdotal.
If anyone can recommend any others studies on this phenomenon then please post links.
If it was proven that humans could in any way, feel, or see the future; then by definition that would mean that either the future has already happened, or that the future is preordained. Either theory falling so far outside the general view of the world and of science (with the exception of maybe quantum theory), they are hard to fully comprehend.
Psychic abilities? « Communion Of Dreams said
[…] IT’S HAPPENING PRESENTLY […]
anthonynorth said
Hi Adam S,
The above essay certainly doesn’t answer the whole subject, as I make clear. When I decided to post seriously on the subject, I realised a single post would be unrealistically long, so the subject is broken up into at least eight posts over the next two or three months.
I’d take issue with you on one point when you say:
‘Either theory falling so far outside the general view of the world and of science’
Science has no view. Science is an on-going discipline, constantly changing. This is something scientists often forget. After all, they are only human. And the statement refers only to their assumptions, not the reality of science.
red pill junkie said
It could explain a lot of precognition events (the idea of subconsciously registering things that get expressed through dreams). And I do think we should find the way to “turn off the ego” so our mind can receive the info of the world unfiltered, so our reactions can be faster and more accurate.
But we also have to consider the fact that, from a technical point of view, the only thing that makes us think that time goes in a single progressive line may be only our mind, as some physicists theorize. What if we could perceive ourselves “outside of time”, when past, present and future would be meaningless?
anthonynorth said
Hi Red,
I’m going to tackle the possibility of past, present and future being ‘one’ next week – at least, try to find where the possibility of the concept could lie.
As for time being psychological, I can accept that we have different interpretations of time, in that the clock went on to imprison us in time, whereas before time was thought of as different, but I think entropy gives us a reality check here.
As for turning off the ego, I think the trance state goes some way to achieving this, but is polluted by inner fantasy. There’s been a lot of talk in this thread of our relation to quantum theory. I think we’ve got our own ‘uncertainty principle’ in the mind, too.